Probability of Geological Success

  • Probability of geological success ($P_g$) depends on charge, storage and entrapment but it does not guarantee that the discovery is economical

    • More details on charge, storage and entrapment here – Classification of Prospective Resources Private or Broken Links
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    • Every expression in the expected value equation requires a responsible geotechnical estimate. 
    • What is the probability (or confidence) that
      • ==reservoir rock is present== of sufficient porosity and permeability to be productive
        • does it have some minimal thickness and extent sufficient to contain detectable (i.e., measurable) quantities of mobile hydrocarbons, or to tempt a prudent onshore domestic operator to attempt a completion?
      • hydrocarbons are present in the subsurface geological environment
        • does the prospect has had access to them in some quantity to provide at least some modicum of hydrocarbon charge?
      • sealed trap exists based on the lithologic combinations and structural configurations depicted
        • does the trapping configuration was already formed when hydrocarbons were migrating into the area of the prospect?
      • that the geological structure of the reservoir objective is, in reality, essentially as represented on maps and cross sections?
    • The potential prospect includes shallow pool, deeper pool, and extension wildcats, commonly managed by development geologists)

References

Metadata

  • topic:: 00 Engineering Economics00 Engineering Economics
    #MOC / for economics notes with focus on petroleum fiscal and engineering
  • updated:: 2022-05-24 Private or Broken Links
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  • reviewed:: 2022-05-24 Private or Broken Links
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  • #Concept